Is Black Friday Still a Winning Strategy for Companies?

BLOG: News + Trends

5 Min Read | December, 2025 | BY Cihan Uzunoglu

The Changing Mechanics of Black Friday

Black Friday used to be defined by a single weekend of peak demand. In 2025, it still drives significant volume, but the underlying mechanics have changed. While top-line numbers broke records, a closer look reveals different forces at play: rising prices, earlier shopping behavior, and increasing costs for brands trying to stay visible.

From a distance, Black Friday 2025 looked like one of the strongest years ever.

Record online spend included:

$11.8 billion in Black Friday ecommerce sales (Adobe)
$6.4 billion in Thanksgiving Day spend (Adobe)
2% in-store growth and 9–10% online growth (CNN)

But these headline figures obscure more meaningful shifts.

Underlying data shows:

Order volumes fell 1% (Salesforce)
Average selling prices rose 7% (Salesforce)

Consumers were purchasing slightly fewer items but paying more for them. What looks like a surge in demand is an inflation-driven revenue story rather than a genuine consumption boom.

Insights From the Black Friday 2025 Shift

This CATAPULT graph displays the days relative to Black Friday on the x-axis and the corresponding sales volume on the y-axis. The data points to meaningful shifts in when and how consumers engage during Black Friday week. The following sections outline the implications for costs, timing, and long-term strategy.

Rising Costs for Brands

At the same time, brands faced escalating costs to maintain performance. Internal analytics from multiple Amazon vendors show that Black Friday - Cyber Monday sales were essentially flat year over year, yet media costs rose by about 20 percent.

This increase reflects broader structural changes in the marketplace. Competition for limited ad placements continues to intensify, especially as more buying activity shifts into mobile apps where real estate is constrained. AI-driven shopping experiences further narrow exposure opportunities, and CPCs (Cost Per Click) and CPMs (Cost Per Mille) continue to climb as brands compete for visibility. The result is clear: achieving last year’s outcomes now requires more budget.

The Shopping Calendar Has Moved

One of the most notable shifts is timing. Shoppers no longer concentrate their decisions on Black Friday itself. Instead:

Deal engagement begins earlier
Many customers complete their purchases before Friday
Traditional “surge” moments matter less than they used to

Brands that activate late are increasingly missing the period of highest intent. By the time Black Friday arrives, a substantial amount of demand has already been captured.

Shifting Focus From Single Sales to Lifetime Value

As promotional periods continue to expand, focusing solely on immediate profits becomes less effective. The importance of Customer Lifetime Value (CLV) is rising significantly. With solutions such as Amazon Marketing Cloud (AMC), brands are now able to evaluate the long-term contribution of customers acquired during major sales events.

Shoppers who appear to be “bargain chasers” might deliver lower margins at first, but many return for future promotions, ultimately boosting their overall value. This pattern is particularly strong in sectors like beauty, home care, and even consumer electronics, where repeat purchases are essential for sustainable growth.

What Tomorrow’s Black Friday Strategy Requires

Show up early: Decision-making begins days or even weeks before Black Friday. Early visibility matters.

Spread investment across the full deal window: Concentrated weekend budgets are less effective when customer intent peaks earlier.

Prioritize mobile readiness: Mobile SERP positions, content quality, and frictionless experiences are more important than ever as mobile takes a larger share of conversions.

Focus on efficiency, not volume: With costs rising, the brands that win are those that deploy spend with precision rather than simply scaling budgets.

Black Friday remains a valuable moment for brands, but the drivers of success have shifted. What once depended on a single high-intensity weekend now hinges on preparation, timing, and the ability to act ahead of the curve. Brands that understand when demand truly builds, invest where visibility matters most, and let early momentum shape the outcome are the ones that will continue to outperform. The advantage belongs to those who anticipate rather than react.

For a deeper exploration of this topic, the "Let’s Talk Marketplace" podcast features an episode on YouTube and Spotify with Benjamin Weyrich, Managing Director at CATAPULT. In his discussion with Ingrid Lommer, he shares insights on Black Week performance, shifts in consumer behavior, and strategic approaches that help brands succeed during peak sales periods.

About the author

Cihan Uzunoglu

Cihan, Ecommerce Insights Manager at Front Row, has been part of the company since February 2025, supporting client projects with market and consumer research, blog content, and newsletter management. With a background in content editing, copywriting, and SEO, he transforms ecommerce insights into actionable stories that engage audiences and deliver results.